An Early Warning Influenza Model using Alberta Real- Time Syndromic Data (ARTSSN)

Paul Smetanin, Rita K. Biel, David Stiff, Douglas McNeil, Lawrence Svenson, Hussain R. Usman, David P. Meurer, Jane Huang, Vanessa Nardelli, Christopher Sikora, James Talbot


We developed early warning algorithms for influenza using data from the Alberta Real-Time Syndromic Surveillance Net (ARTSSN). In addition to looking for signatures of potential pandemics, the model was operationalized by using the algorithms to provide regular weekly forecasts on the influenza trends in Alberta during 2012-2014. We describe the development of the early warning model and the predicted influenza peak time and attack rate results. We report on the usefulness of this model using real-time ARTSSN data, discuss how it was used by decision makers and suggest future enhancements for this promising tool in influenza planning and preparedness.

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Online Journal of Public Health Informatics * ISSN 1947-2579 *